Achievability – Knowledgebase

Achievability is Forecast AI's estimate of whether your selected training target can be reached by your target date, given your current fitness, training patterns, and available time.

It's shown during plan setup — before you run Forecast AI — as a quick assessment of how realistic your goal is. Achievability is displayed for all three Forecast AI modes: Goal, Event, and Race.

How It's Calculated

Forecast AI evaluates several factors together:

Your current Fitness Signature and training loads — what you're capable of today, and what your recent training patterns look like
The target date — how much time you have to prepare
The nature of the improvement — the training loads or signature changes needed to reach the target, based on the mode:
Goal: the increase in Threshold Power, HIE, or Peak Power needed for your selected focus and target power
Event: the training loads needed to complete your event at your target Event Readiness, given the event's type, terrain, and duration
Race: the fitness required to match or exceed the target performance under your specified conditions (target speed, weight, difficulty cap, and readiness)
Your available training time — daily availability and max weekly hours

What the Achievability States Mean

Achievability displays one of a few states as you adjust your setup:

Achievable — Forecast AI estimates a plan can be built to reach your target by the date, given your available time. Running Forecast AI will confirm the specific plan.
Not achievable — Forecast AI can't find a path to your target with the current inputs. The specific limiting factor is usually indicated — a training load, a signature parameter, or an availability constraint.
Not achievable due to insufficient training hours — Your available training time isn't enough to reach the target by the date. Increasing weekly hours or extending the target date typically resolves this.

Achievability is only an estimate at the setup stage. The definitive answer comes from actually running Forecast AI, which attempts to schedule the specific training and flags any day-level conflicts (see magenta days in Training with Xert Forecast AI).

What to Do About It

If Achievability shows your target isn't reachable, the common levers are:

Extend the target date — more time makes larger changes possible
Soften the target — reduce the power gain, target speed, or Event Readiness target
Add training hours — increase your available weekly time
Adjust settings — Polarization, Recovery Demands, and XSS per Hour also affect what fits

For detailed guidance on responding to Achievability results in each mode, see:

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